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Indicators, execution, risk management, and exchange workflows.
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Market indicators
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
The index published by Alternative.me compresses several Bitcoin-market sentiment inputs into a 0–100 score. It describes a methodology-specific sentiment state; it is not a valuation model or a standalone trading signal.
CBBI cycle index
CBBI combines multiple Bitcoin cycle indicators into a 0–100 composite. It is best treated as a transparent cycle heuristic based on historical relationships, not as a validated probability of a top or bottom.
DVOL implied volatility
DVOL is Deribit's cryptocurrency implied-volatility index derived from options prices. It summarizes the market's priced volatility, not whether the underlying asset will rise or fall.
Cboe VIX volatility index
VIX is Cboe's measure of near-term expected S&P 500 volatility implied by SPX option prices. It is a forward-looking volatility benchmark, not a direct forecast of equity direction.
Pi Cycle Top indicator
The Pi Cycle Top indicator compares two transformed Bitcoin moving averages. Its historical signals are visually notable, but the rule was selected from past data and should not be treated as a guaranteed top detector.
Fear & Greed Parameter Sensitivity and Out-of-Sample Failure
Sentiment strategies can look attractive because of threshold selection, holding periods, and overlapping observations. This note applies a common benchmark, costs, executable sequences, sensitivity grids, and an out-of-sample split.
Sentiment Extremity, Volatility, and Liquidity Withdrawal
Extreme fear and extreme greed may share a microstructure feature: elevated uncertainty, greater market-making risk, and reduced liquidity. Direction and intensity require separate tests, with controls for volatility embedded in sentiment indices.
Historical Impact of Macro Releases on Bitcoin and Risk Assets
CPI, payrolls, FOMC, and PCE can move rate expectations, the dollar, and risk appetite simultaneously. Reliable event studies require aligned timestamps, market-session handling, medians, and surprise groups.
Derivatives & execution
Funding-rate mechanics
A funding rate is a periodic payment between long and short perpetual-futures positions. It helps keep the perpetual price near its reference market, but the formula, interval, cap, and settlement rules vary by venue and contract.
Cross-exchange funding arbitrage
This strategy pairs a long position on a lower-rate venue with a short position on a higher-rate venue. It aims to reduce directional exposure and collect the rate difference, but it is not risk-free or perfectly market-neutral.
Liquidation-price mechanics
Liquidation begins when account equity no longer satisfies a venue's maintenance-margin rules. Any simple formula is only an estimate because brackets, fees, mark price, position mode, and cross-margin balances differ by venue.
Leverage and margin
Leverage controls position notional relative to collateral. It amplifies gains, losses, fees, and funding exposure; it does not make the underlying market move more or less.
Perpetual vs dated futures
Perpetual contracts have no expiry and use funding to encourage price alignment. Dated futures expire and settle under a defined contract specification, so their basis normally converges toward settlement.
Maker and taker fees
Maker orders add resting liquidity to an order book; taker orders immediately match existing liquidity. Venues often charge them differently, but order type alone does not guarantee maker status or better execution.
Open interest
Open interest is the outstanding quantity of derivative contracts that remain open under a venue's reporting convention. It describes participation and exposure, not whether traders are net bullish or bearish.
Long-short ratios
A long-short ratio compares selected long and short accounts or positions. The definition, population, and weighting vary by provider, so ratios from different dashboards may not be comparable.
Cash-and-carry basis trades
A cash-and-carry trade typically buys spot and shorts a richer futures contract to target convergence. The quoted basis is not the final return after financing, fees, collateral, execution, and counterparty risk.
Slippage and market liquidity
Slippage is the difference between an expected reference price and the achieved execution. It depends on spread, available depth, order size, volatility, latency, and the execution method.
Normalizing Funding Rates Across Venues
Raw rates, settlement intervals, predicted rates, and settled rates are not interchangeable. This note defines a common-period normalization and identifies contract and execution differences that a single number cannot remove.
Classifying Derivatives Regimes with Funding, OI, and Basis
Funding describes only one dimension of positioning cost. Combining its historical percentile with changes in open interest and perpetual basis separates new leverage, deleveraging, and low-conviction regimes.
Fees, Slippage, and Venue Risk in Market-Neutral Trades
Directionally hedged is not risk-free. Cross-venue funding trades require at least four fills, two margin systems, asynchronous settlements, and residual basis. This note converts headline spread into an execution threshold.
Risk & asset management
The 4% withdrawal rule
The 4% rule is a historical U.S. portfolio-planning heuristic: an initial withdrawal near 4%, followed by inflation adjustments, was tested over finite retirement horizons. It is not a universal guarantee.
Stablecoin mechanics and depeg risk
A stablecoin targets a reference value through reserves, collateral, redemption, or incentive mechanisms. A price near one unit does not prove reserve quality, redemption access, or legal protection.
Exchange-account security
Exchange security combines account hygiene with platform and custody risk. Strong authentication can reduce account takeover, but it cannot eliminate exchange insolvency, operational failure, or withdrawal restrictions.
Self-custody and private-key risk
Self-custody gives the user control of signing keys and removes reliance on an exchange for withdrawals. It also transfers backup, transaction, device, and inheritance responsibilities to the user.
Dollar-cost averaging
Dollar-cost averaging invests a defined amount on a schedule. It reduces timing discretion and spreads entry prices, but it does not guarantee profit or protect against a permanently impaired asset.