How the Pi Cycle Top indicator works
The Pi Cycle Top indicator compares two transformed Bitcoin moving averages. Its rule was selected from past data, making post-development signals and out-of-sample performance central to evaluation.
The crossover rule
The commonly cited construction compares the 111-day moving average with twice the 350-day moving average.
It is a slow trend indicator. A crossover can arrive after a major move; execution and risk rules require separate specification.
Backtest and regime risk
A small number of historical cycles is not enough to establish a stable law. Parameter selection can also overfit past peaks.
Use it as one cycle observation alongside liquidity, valuation, positioning, and a pre-defined exit plan.
Frequently asked questions
Does every crossover mark the exact top?⌄
Historical proximity varies by cycle. Compare signal dates, peak dates and subsequent drawdowns.
Is it useful for daily trading?⌄
Its long moving averages make it a long-horizon trend heuristic.
View cycle indicators →