VIX, DVOL, and Fear & Greed: a cross-market comparison
VIX and BTC DVOL describe annualized option-implied volatility for different markets. Fear & Greed is a composite sentiment score. Their levels cannot be treated as one common fear scale.
Identify the unit first
VIX uses S&P 500 index options; BTC DVOL uses Deribit bitcoin options. Both represent roughly 30-day implied volatility on an annualized scale. The alternative.me Fear & Greed index is a 0-to-100 composite score, not a volatility percentage.
A hypothetical time-scale conversion
Annualized volatility times the square root of days divided by 365 gives a rough scale under simplifying assumptions. Hypothetical VIX of 20 and DVOL of 60 correspond to about 5.7% and 17.2% over 30 days.
These are not live readings or guaranteed price ranges. Jumps, changing volatility, risk premiums, and fat tails prevent a simple conversion from establishing real-world coverage probabilities. Do not apply it to sentiment scores.
Interpret divergence cautiously
Check timestamps and trading sessions before interpreting divergence, especially when US markets are closed. Compare each series with its own history rather than imposing one threshold.
A rise in BTC implied volatility can accompany upside or downside uncertainty. Sentiment composites already include volatility-related inputs, so they are not fully independent confirmations.
Frequently asked questions
Does VIX 20 predict a 20% monthly loss?⌄
No. It is an annualized volatility measure and does not predict direction.
Does high DVOL necessarily mean fear?⌄
No. Uncertainty about a large upward move can also lift implied volatility.
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